Autumn

Japan’s autumn color, from the record

Every forecast tells you when the leaves are expected to turn. This page is the other half: what a mountain hut in the Japan Alps and a visitor center at Oku-Nikko wrote down, with the date, year after year, and which of the scenes on our list turn, what turns on them, and in what order.

Checked 3 October 2026. We do not publish a forecast of our own.

Karasawa, 2019–2025

The Karasawa Hyutte, a mountain hut at 2,300 meters in the Japan Alps, posts a dated note on the color most days through the season and keeps the archive year by year. That is 96 dated notes. Below, the first day it called any part of the bowl at its best, the first day it said so without qualifying it, and the day it stopped posting.

This season: the hut has posted 15 reports, the latest on 11 October 2026. It first called the whole bowl at its best on 1 October 2026.

YearFirst patches The whole bowlLast report
201930 September30 September13 October
20202 October2 October16 October
202127 September30 September15 October
20221 October2 October12 October
20232 October2 October10 October
20241 October3 October14 October
202527 September2 October13 October
Median1 October2 October13 October

In all seven years the hut first called the whole bowl at its best between 30 September and 3 October. Seven autumns, four days. Patches show up earlier and the spread there is wider, which is why the two columns are separate.

We cannot tell you when it ended. The hut stops posting when its season closes, so the record runs out before the color does. In four of the seven years it never said the color was past; in the other three it did, and two of those were its last post of the year, the remaining one the day before. Read the last column as the end of the reporting, not the end of the leaves.

What that leaves you with: 3 October to 10 October sits inside the reported season in every one of the seven years, which is the narrowest claim the record supports and the only one worth booking on. Source: Karasawa Hyutte, autumn color reports · our other long-term records · the scene itself.

Oku-Nikko, 2010–2025

Oku-Nikko is the high country of lakes and marshes above the shrines of Nikko, north of Tokyo. The Nikko Yumoto Visitor Center, run there for the Ministry of the Environment, posts a photo and a line or two about each place through the season and keeps every year online: 1,640 posts, from the autumn of 2010 to 1 October 2026. Below, the first day each year it called each of five things at its best, migoro (見頃): three places, and the grass and the larches on the Senjogahara and Odashirogahara marshes. The grass, which turns red-brown, usually comes first; the larches and Lake Chuzenji, the big lake lower down, come last.

This season: when we last read its pages, on 3 October 2026, the center had called the marsh grass at its best on 30 September, and nothing else yet. We read them by hand, not every day.

YearMarsh grassLake YunokoRyuzu FallsLake ChuzenjiLarches
2010–12 October9 October25 October22 October
20116 October10 October11 October18 October21 October
20123 October16 October15 October23 October20 October
201329 September13 October9 October24 October11 October
201419 September–2 October15 October11 October
2015–10 October16 October–16 October
20162 October14 October9 October–20 October
2017–10 October11 October26 October20 October
2018–11 October–28 October24 October
20196 October20 October–22 October–
20204 October11 October15 October–29 October
202124 September9 October–30 October27 October
20222 October15 October16 October18 October–
202311 October16 October14 October30 October–
202417 October17 October18 October17 October27 October
20253 October19 October21 October26 October25 October
Median3 October13 October14 October24 October21 October

In the fifteen years the center gave Lake Yunoko a date (every year but 2014), that date fell between 9 and 20 October. Lower down is not always later: Ryuzu Falls, lower in the valley than Lake Yunoko, came before it in five of the twelve years with a date for both.

A dash means the center did not call that place at its best that year: it did not use the word, used it only to say the color was still to come or had passed, or said only part of the place was at its best. On the marshes a post also has to name the grass or the larches. The center posts every few days, so in a year with a gap the real start may be earlier. Marsh grass is Senjogahara or Odashirogahara; Lake Chuzenji is photographed from a different shore in different years. These are first days, not the height of the color: in 2025 the center first called Lake Chuzenji at its best on 26 October and was still saying so on 3 November. The bottom row is the middle date in each column, over the years that column has a date; it is not an expected date. Source: Nikko Yumoto Visitor Center, autumn color pages (in Japanese) · every post and our reading of it · the scene itself.

Where the leaves turn, in the order they turn

24 of the 73 published scenes name autumn color as a reason to come on their own page. Here they are north to south and high to low, which is roughly the order the color arrives. A scene missing from this list has not been recorded as an autumn scene, which is not the same as having no color.

Where to go next

How this page is kept

The rules we hold ourselves to

  • We do not forecast. Other people do it well. We record what was said, with the date it was said and who said it.
  • The dates are the hut's and the visitor center's. The reading of them is ours. At Karasawa a day counts as “the whole bowl” only when the hut said at its best (migoro) or peak with nothing limiting it; “the upper part is at its best” goes in the first column instead. At Oku-Nikko a date counts only when the center said the place was at its best then: not that it soon would be, not that it had been, and not that only part of it was. Those rules are ours, and they are the only judgment in the two tables.
  • We say where the record stops. The hut closes its season and stops writing, so the end of the color is not in the archive and we do not invent it.
  • Two places, for now, and two tables. Karasawa and Oku-Nikko are here because each keeps an archive that goes back years: the hut to 2019, the visitor center to 2010. Both use the word migoro, but the hut also says “peak” for at its best, while the center mostly uses “peak” for the run-up and the fall-off. So each is read with its own rule, and the tables stay apart.

Send it on

The seven years of Karasawa dates, as a card

This is what shows up when you paste the link. The dates in it are the Karasawa table above.

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